Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
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