Australia's Unsuccessful Attempt to Host Cop31 Looks Like a Mess – Yet It May Actually Be the Best Result Achievable

Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.