Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
